Bayes Inference in Multicriteria Analysis for Hybrid Electrical Transportation Systems Design

[+] Author and Article Information
Elio Chiodo, Giovanni Velotto

Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Naples “Federico II,” Naples 80131, Italy

J. Fuel Cell Sci. Technol 4(4), 450-458 (May 24, 2006) (9 pages) doi:10.1115/1.2759508 History: Received December 01, 2005; Revised May 24, 2006

An advanced stage has been reached in the research and development of alternative vehicle propulsion systems, aiming at assuring acceptable levels of both consumption and emissions. Many different criteria, often expressed in incommensurable units, such as weight, reliability or availability, cost, etc., must be taken into account in order to obtain an “optimal” design for such systems. The design of such vehicles is the result of a complex synthesis, requiring high degree of methodologies involving tradeoffs among multiple criteria. This paper proposes a probabilistic multicriteria decision analysis applied to the design of a hybrid electric vehicle. In particular, a Bayesian estimation approach is proposed and numerically illustrated, with the purpose of determining the optimal decision for the systems’ design under uncertainty. In the course of the numerical application, it is shown how such methodology is able to integrate and update available information, even if poor and uncertain, on the basis of new experimental data.

Copyright © 2007 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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Figure 1

Specific energy utility function

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Figure 2

Specific power utility function

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Figure 3

Life utility function

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Figure 4

Initial costs utility function

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Figure 5

Pdfs of specific energy

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Figure 6

Pdfs of specific power

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Figure 7

Pdfs of life (hr)

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Figure 8

Pdfs of initial costs

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Figure 9

Prior pdfs of utilities

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Figure 10

Posterior utilities’ pdfs



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